So far, the bond market has diverged from the stock market, and the commodity market. Most think the bond market is the “smart money”, however, Adam Robinson has proven that this has generally not been the case since 2000, as I shared with my members earlier this week.
What does this mean in practicality?
In simple terms, Treasury Yields could be finally poised to rise materially, particularly at the longer-end of the curve.
What could be the catalyst?
How about new Treasury issuance that outpaces the reduced scope of Fed Treasury buying? This is more probable than it seems, in my opinion, as Fed Treasury buying has gone from a full gusher, at $75 billion per day, to a relative trickle, ending last week with the Fed buying $6 billion in Friday’s trading session.